Tour de France: Top-five general classification contenders

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Bradley Wiggins (Sky) and Cadel Evans (BMC) chat as race and points leaders(Image credit: Bettini Photo)

There’s much uncertainty leading into the 2012 Tour de France, with recent injuries and quiet showings throughout the season catapulting some of the favourites into the ‘unknown’ category. Alberto Contador is of course absent from this year’s race and this may instil confidence in a number of contenders, while others will hope to turn around a year of poor form. Some, like Bradley Wiggins will be arriving back at the Tour after being forced out last year in the crash-marred first week or from skipping last year’s race.

Andy Schleck would have been one of the main protagonists but a fall in the time trial at the Critérium du Dauphiné and subsequent fractured pelvis means he will miss the race. Denis Menchov may have timed his condition perfectly as he demonstrated by winning the Russian time trial title earlier this week. Menchov often needs a pre-Tour, grand tour in his legs before being able to be competitive but with Giro d’Italia and Vuelta a’Espana titles he cannot be ruled out. His Geox-TMC team’s omission last year and disappointing Vuelta in 2011 means he is not included in the top-five. Ivan Basso has pledged his support to his teammate Vincenzo Nibali and following his assault at a second Giro title, it would appear his condition is not be up to the task regardless.

Summary: There’s no doubting Evans’ ability to lead his BMC Racing Team at this year’s Tour. This will be his eighth Tour start and despite the disappointment of 2009 and 2010, he’s proven he can climb with the best and time trial quicker than the pure climbers. Evans has received criticism over the years for not being aggressive enough but the confidence and leadership he showed last year quashed such doubts.

Evans’ Ardennes campaign was cut short due to illness and he lacked the form to repeat last year’s win at Tour de Romandie. However, he showed the kind of aggressive racing often missing to win a stage and finish third overall at the recent Critérium du Dauphiné despite being off the pace in the 53km time trial against Bradley Wiggins. "I still have some improvements to make before the Tour" he said.

The way Sky led the Critérium du Dauphiné is not necessarily how the Tour will unfold but it was a controlled performance by the team which had Michael Rogers (Aus), Chris Froome (Gbr) and Richie Porte (Aus) finish inside the top-ten. These three will line up as super-domestiques and yet they could have a leader role if they were on any other team. All of them understand this Tour is about Wiggins and personal motives will not be tolerated unless approved by their directors.

The need to be patient may be critical to his success as his number one road captain Ivan Basso will likely enforce. Basso and his domestiques took control of the race in the Giro to suit his capabilities and this leadership will be an asset. Nibali has matured in the last few seasons but there is no denying Basso’s experience on the road. If Basso has recovered successfully from his Giro campaign he will be invaluable to the "Shark of Messina".

Nibali has achieved a number of wins this year, including the brutal mountain stage to Jabal Al Akhdar (Green Mountain) and second place overall at the Tour of Oman, plus the hilltop finish of stage five and the overall classification at Tirreno-Adriatico. He has also shown his endurance over longer one-day races, and was frustratingly close to winning one of the season’s Monuments at Milan San-Remo and Liege-Bastogne-Liege, where he was third and second respectively. It’s an impressive list for the Italian, who opened his season in January with the Tour de San Luis. A heavy block of training leading into the Dauphiné may excuse his lacking in the mountains but he should be fit come Tour time.

Gesink can climb. That has been proven on multiple occasions but where he excels, he also shows weakness. His descending has marginally improved since he lost the race lead in Paris-Nice - essentially on a descent - to Davide Rebellin in 2008, but his ability to stay upright has impeded his grand tour hopes in the past. The Dutchman’s slim and lanky build doesn’t do him any favours when the road heads downward. And unfortunately he won’t have the luxury of Basso’s team escorting him downhill as Nibali prefers to take opportunities and risks wherever he sees fit.

Gesink came away from California on a high but arrived at the Dauphine seemingly behind expectations. His condition improved as the race progressed but it was a common sight to see him teetering off the back of the leading group, unable to cope with the accelerations and instead making his way slowly into contention. Gesink had the fifth best time in the stage seven time trial - a dramatic improvement from 26th in the opening prologue, where he lost 31 seconds to Peter Sagan (Liquigas - Cannondale) - but he will lose time to Evans, Wiggins and Menchov. With a fourth overall in Suisse one can assume his form will have progressed by the start of the Tour in Liège.